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Showing posts with label AIG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AIG. Show all posts

Monday, November 30, 2009

11/30/09 AIG trade setup

View Comments Posted by Matthew Mersch at 10:21 AM

Mid day update: today we saw one of our favorite trade set ups in AIG. Some simple characteristics that got us involved in this trade:

  • Break down on daily chart. Below is a daily chart of AIG going back to March 2009.


  • Intraday relative weakness. Check out posted chart, SPY (in red) makes a move up of the open (highlighted by the channel). AIG (in green) shows no sign of strength. This is a great timing mechanism. When market/SPY roll, AIG accelerates to downside.


  • AIG is a name in play and on people's radar.


  • AIG options trade in pennies, which is one thing Trading RM focuses on.

Sometimes the simplest set ups are the best ones.

 

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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Upon further review...

View Comments Posted by Matthew Mersch at 5:18 PM

Every good trader I know reviews his/her trades at the end of the day. Today while reviewing my trades I found the same flaw in a couple of losers. In short I was trading what I thought would/could happen. I did not trade what was happening.

1) I was long RCL and CCL early in the day. I have had success with these names in the past when they were in play. Today I had one piece of the puzzle with earnings on CCL. But I did not see confirmation in the price action of the stock or the options.

2) AIG - I am guilty of trading this from the long side early today because I did not feel I made enough in it yesterday. Again this was not in play on the long side. I was trading what I thought might happen.

Reviewing trades at the end of the trading day helps me evaluate my trades and what made them profitable or unprofitable. During the day I may have thought my timing was off. Upon further review I had poor selection on these plays. I had nice winners in AMZN, LH, DGX, and CIT today. But my day could have been better without the out of play names in between.






 

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Friday, August 21, 2009

August Option Experation. How to profit.

View Comments Posted by Sellputs at 6:06 AM

Today is option expiration, the 3rd Friday of every month IF you were not aware. Magical things can happen on days like today, you can buy up the cheapies with size, only to sell them out for huge gains as the underlying moves towards your speculative strike. For me option expiration is just that, low risk/high reward speculation. Another tricky cog in the wheel to profits is time value, which is zero, only intrinsic value and Vol are factors in price. So when you see so many options trading at seeminly low prices, this is why. My primary focus is going to be in high beta names i know can move, like GOOG, AIG, AAPL etc. If AIG can move like it did yesterday, there is no reason why you would not snap up the 40 strike calls, or vise versa, pick up the 25 puts (IF and only if AIG exhibits price action indicative of a move like we have seen). Im sure there is going to be some pin risk associated with many names, this is where the underlying pins to the strike with the most open interest. July's expiration was fairly eventful, with IBM being in play, along with lots of takeover chatter and other market moving news. Since this is late August, i will be a bit less aggressive unless price action presents itself.

 

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