Tuesday, August 11, 2009


Every keeps asking is the rally over? Fortunately, I do not make a living answering this question. I am not a psychic, nor do I claim to be one. I am not a hedge fund manager, nor do I manage other peoples' money. I am a DAYTRADER. I can react to certain "tells" in the market and react accordingly. Look at the Monthly S&P chart above. I am measuring a fibonacci retracement from the October 2007 high till the low back in March. The rally has ceased at 1017 in the ES which is a 38.2% retracement. This is a crucial level in the market.
The high on August seventh was a Doji candlestick for the daily ES chart (pit traded session only) This is showing indecision and I am waiting for the market to dictate where we go from here.
I tried playing the market exclusively from the short side today, but the market wasn't quite ready yet to go down. Maybe we see some continuation tomorrow after the FED rate decision. Once this is comes out, we should be able to see pretty easily if the bears have come out of hibernation. Look for volume to come back in and the russell (small caps) to lead the market lower.
As we all know, stocks fall fast and hard during selloffs. Never say, something can not go lower. It inevitably will.

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