Thursday, July 16, 2009

Commodity Roundup for July 15, 2009


Today’s Department of Energy data was mixed and in a somewhat different manner from the American Petroleum Institute numbers and were slightly bearish overall. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels, which was more than expected. Refinery runs rose by 139,000 barrels a day and imports were up 325,000 barrels a day on the week. Distillate inventories rose by 600,000 barrels, which was less than expected, but still a new high. Gasoline came in with a build in stocks of 1.5 million barrels, which was on the high side of the expected range. Last night, the American Petroleum Institute reported crude supplies fell 1.2 million barrels last week, gasoline stocks dropped to 69,000 barrels, and distillate inventories rose 625,000 barrels.

The USO sold off after the DoE results came out, but then continued moving up as the equity markets were showing extraordinary strength. Yesterday, INTC reported much better than expected earnings with strong guidance. Their earnings and guidance reflect an increase in consumer demand and as we enter earnings season the consumer demand trade may trigger a bounce in oil as traders might be playing the consumer demand trade.

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